Recently, the news about the decline in rosewood prices has touched the nerves of many rosewood investors and enthusiasts. Has the redwood really fallen? The reporter recently visited the local redwood market and learned that due to various factors such as the rush of stocks and speculation, the prices of some rosewood raw materials such as Burmese rosewood, arborvitae and Siamese rosewood have declined recently. However, the mahogany furniture market has not been affected by this, and the price has not fallen. Industry insiders predict that next year, the price of redwood will not appear in the "roller coaster" market, but it will rise steadily and return to rationality.
Industry report: the price of logs such as rosewood white rosewood has dropped
"Some of the rosewood prices are now falling." Recently, the reporter interviewed a number of people in the redwood industry to understand that recently, some of the rosewood raw materials such as Burmese rosewood, arborvitae, and Siamese rosewood have fallen.
Li Yingjian, head of the Forest Products Quality Testing Center of Guangxi University/Guangzhou Zhuang Autonomous Region Wood and Wood Products Quality Supervision and Inspection Station, said that due to various external factors such as the tight border trade between China and Vietnam and the suspension of rosewood logs from Myanmar on April 1, The overall trend of the rosewood raw material market is rising, but some rosewood raw material prices have fallen.
Among them, Burmese rosewood (Dalian rosewood) fell more obviously. When the price was the highest last year, the large fruit rosewood (generally) reached 26,000-32,000 yuan per ton, and now it falls to 19,000-25,000 yuan per ton, a drop of about 30%; the current price of white rosewood (general material) It was 26,000 to 32,000 yuan per ton, and the highest price last year reached 40,000 yuan per ton. "The price of some raw materials of rosewood has recently fallen, and some rosewood prices have not changed. This is a normal ups and downs, which is a normal market regulation behavior." Li Yingjian said.
"In the raw materials of Siamese rosewood, the prices of those relatively poor raw materials fell by about 15%." Li Zhiyuan, director of marketing for Hong Kong Redwood, told reporters that those relatively good materials, or large quantities, are still very firm. Yan Zhiming, the person in charge of Pingxiangyuantang, told the reporter that among the raw materials of Huazhimu, the prices of the corners and fabrics that made the furniture more adequately fell slightly.
Will the redwood merchants take the opportunity to hoard mahogany raw materials? Li Zhiyuan said that they will not blindly follow up, nor will they blindly hoard raw materials when they fall. They will purchase and hoard mahogany according to whether the price of the mahogany is reasonable, the best node for the purchase, whether the mahogany has the potential for appreciation.
Reason analysis: speculation of hot money selling and other reasons caused prices to fall
What caused the price of some rosewood raw materials to fall?
Li Yingjian analyzed that many redwood prices rose too fast last year. There were more buyers of hot-selling mahogany raw materials. Buyers waited for the appreciation to a certain extent to ship. Many of the hot money was raised by loans. In order to pay interest, many people are eager to sell. As a result, the prices of wood species such as Burmese rosewood, which caused the rise too fast last year, have fallen.
Li Zhiyuan believes that due to the impact of Myanmar's export of rosewood logs and other related policies since April 1, 2014, the price of raw materials such as Burmese rosewood and other raw materials has risen too much, and many mahogany furniture factories have hoarded raw materials such as rosewood and hoarded. The raw materials can be at least enough for the furniture factory to supply the raw materials for one year. The raw materials of the redwoods currently on the market are not as good as the original ones. At the same time, due to the large increase, some consumers are difficult to digest, thus causing some raw material prices to fall.
Zhuo Zhencai, chairman of Nanning Yizhi Classical Furniture Factory, said that many Hongmu enterprises had loaned raw materials for hoarding last year due to relevant policies. For example, many furniture factories worried about no red rosewood raw materials in May-June last year, and they bought a lot of loans. Nowadays, many enterprises are hard to refinance at banks. Enterprises have to repay loans, and many people have to sell raw materials. It is. To this end, the price of raw materials for red rosewood has fallen recently.
Market direct attack: Nanning Pingxiang mahogany furniture prices have changed little
Many consumers have this question: Does the drop in raw material prices mean that mahogany furniture has also fallen? "The prices of all our mahogany furniture have not fallen. The price has not changed in the past few months." A salesperson of a mahogany store in Changhu Road told reporters.
In the past few days, the reporter visited many mahogany furniture stores such as Changhu Road, Jinchun Road and Tinghong Road, and the mahogany furniture factory learned that although some raw materials of rosewood have fallen, the terminal mahogany furniture market has not been shaken, the price Still no change.
Li Zhiyuan told reporters that they had already hoarded enough redwood raw materials in advance, and some of the wood species did not blindly follow up when the price increase was the strongest. Since the raw materials they hoarded have not yet been processed, the furniture currently sold is still sold at the original price and has not fallen. "Only those newly opened mahogany furniture manufacturers, in order to attract customers and let some profits to attract customers, but the price cut is not obvious."
Zhuo Zhencai also said that the overall price of mahogany furniture is still stable, and has not been affected by the decline in raw materials. "However, now that the real estate industry is shrinking, affecting the mahogany furniture industry, and enterprises are not able to lend money, the survival of enterprises is more difficult. In the future, the price of mahogany furniture may be affected."
What is the situation of the Hongmu furniture market in Pingxiang City on the Sino-Vietnamese border? Is it faster than the Nanning rosewood market?
“The price of our Burmese rosewood furniture has not changed.†Lin Dongmei, head of the Pingxiang Tianyige Redwood Factory, which is engaged in the production of Burmese rosewood furniture in large quantities, told reporters that the plant has hoarded more than 100 tons of Burmese rosewood raw materials, all of which were used. It produces furniture by itself, and a set of furniture takes two or three months from the opening, design and production. Therefore, the price fluctuations have no effect on the furniture price. “Now it is the off-season of the sales of the mahogany market. We also offer preferential prices for some models. This is also a normal off-season promotion, which has nothing to do with fluctuations in raw material prices.â€
Yan Zhiming also said that the price of their mahogany furniture has not changed recently. Only some merchants in Pingxiang have launched some preferential promotions, but the incentives are not great. For example, a set of sofas with a price of 40,000 yuan is only one or two thousand yuan.
"The price of furniture is relatively lagging behind the price of raw materials for several months. For example, the rise in furniture last year is also lagging behind. In general, the decline of Guangxi mahogany furniture market is not obvious, and the reduction of mahogany furniture is very small." Li Yingjian said.
Prospects: The price of rosewood has risen steadily and has returned to rationality.
Then, will the price of redwoods in the next year be a "roller coaster" market that has skyrocketed and plunged?
Li Yingjian analyzed that the current decline in the price of raw materials for redwood in the department is only a temporary situation. After some mahogany speculators have taken away raw materials and the factory has digested the accumulated raw materials, the price of redwood, which is currently falling in price, such as Burmese rosewood and white rosewood may rise. For example, Burmese rosewood rose too much last year because of hot money. When the hot money was withdrawn, and the policy of prohibiting the export of rosewood logs in Myanmar from April 1st, the price of Burmese rosewood would rise steadily.
"It is expected that the price of redwood will not rise and fall sharply next year, but will rise steadily." Li Yingjian believes that there are two major factors that influence the long-term market of the mahogany market: First, the consumer groups that like mahogany continue to expand, and more and more investors invest in mahogany. The world's mahogany resources are becoming less and less, and the contradiction between the two cannot be solved. Second, the policy of restricting the export of redwood is becoming more and more tight. After the publication of the CIT ES Convention, there are five kinds of Dalbergia chinensis and Central American Dalbergia. Redwood is strictly restricted to import and export, and the market will become more and more tight in the future, especially the price of Siamese rosewood (Sian rosewood) will only get higher and higher.
"Positive rosewood prices have not risen normally last year. Now the decline is a normal market self-regulation behavior, and it is also a reflection of the market's return to rationality." Li Zhiyuan believes that after the abnormally speculative hot money exits the market, the market will automatically return to the rational increase. It is expected that there will be no sharp rise and fall in the next year, but it will rise steadily.
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