Focus on industry price trend

Industry Recent Product Market Price Trends (November 25-December 2): The price of cardboard paper was 3,298 yuan / ton, up 0.13% month-on-month, up 0.25% year-on-year, and the price was slightly increased month-on-month; It rose 0.28%, up 0.91% year-on-year. The price of white cardboard was 4,613 yuan / ton, up 0.06% month-on-month and down 3.42% year-on-year. The price of cultural paper was 5,194 yuan / ton, up 0.14% month-on-month and down 5.04% year-on-year

Cost price trend (November 25 to December 2): The price of domestic waste paper was 1,218 yuan / ton, up 0.27% month-on-month and down 3.18% year-on-year; the price increased slightly. The price of imported waste paper was US $ 171 / ton, down 1.42% month-on-month and down 11.80% year-on-year; the price was down month-on-month.

In December, the price of packaging paper showed a slight upward trend, and "South (South China, East China) rose North (North China) fell". The goal of leading companies in the early stage to raise the price of corrugated boxboard by 50 yuan has been slow to advance. In December, benefiting from the suspension of production and maintenance is expected, paper prices may still have room to rise, but in view of the still weak downstream demand and the overall downward cost, it is not appropriate to be too optimistic about the price increase. Excluding large exchange losses, leading companies' gross profit per ton and net profit per ton may remain relatively stable in the fourth quarter. The withdrawal of corrugated boxboard production capacity in southern China in the first half of the year still had a positive impact.

The VAT rebate benefits implemented since July (most small mills may not meet the benefit standards) will benefit short-term large paper mills in net profit improvement (expected to increase net profit per tonne by 15-20 yuan).

The Fed's interest rate hike may be imminent and exchange rate market uncertainty is still a short-term disturbance. Although companies have taken corresponding measures after August this year (including reducing the proportion of imported waste paper, adjusting the debt structure, etc.) to reduce the US dollar exposure, it is expected that short-term exchange rate market volatility may once again suppress stock price performance. At the same time, we also remind that the possibility of companies issuing profit warnings due to large exchange losses is not ruled out.

With the increase in supply, the price of US and national waste is expected to continue to decline in the medium term. In the short term, national waste prices are firmer and US waste prices continue to decline. The depreciation of the renminbi may support the national scrap price to a certain extent and suppress the US scrap price.

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