In recent years, the price fluctuations in the international pulp market have been relatively intense, causing the industry’s attention. Due to the rapid development of the paper industry in China, the import volume of pulp has risen sharply and has played a pivotal role in the international pulp market. Foreign professional media have included the Chinese market as one of the important factors affecting fluctuations in international pulp prices.
Viewpoint (Observation), a US-based RISI publication, recently reviewed the main factors affecting the pulp market. The article believes that there are three main factors affecting the price of pulp in the third quarter of this year: First, the pulp stocks of the five major pulp-producing countries in effect were announced on Tuesday, and in April, they were reduced by 188,000 tons from March. Still need to pay attention to the stock situation in the next few months; Second, the supply of the pulp market may be more in short supply than expected, while the reduction in supply will continue to reduce inventory; Third, another important reason for the crisis in pulp prices is The demand and trend of wood pulp in the Chinese market is a crucial part of evaluating the global pulp market outlook.
The demand for pulp in the Chinese market has been particularly strong in recent years. Last year bleached wood pulp imports amounted to 4.46 million tons. At the same time, China’s share of the global bleached wood pulp market has risen sharply. In the past four quarters, China’s share of wood pulp imports accounted for 12% of global wood pulp shipments, compared with 7% in 1999 and 2000, and only 4% in 1997.
Some people think that from the trend point of view, the recent sharp increase in China's imports of wood pulp does not seem to reverse. They believe that the increase in wood pulp imports reflects China's liberalization of demand for wood pulp, which is closely related to the overall growth of China's paper industry and changes in the production structure. It is well known that China's paper industry has recently invested heavily in the construction of large-scale new paper machines, which require the use of large amounts of wood pulp. In addition, when Chinese customers import wood pulp, they never ignore the key factor of price. They attach great importance to it, so the impact on pulp prices will be greater than the other two aspects mentioned above. China has always been able to reduce purchases when prices have risen in a timely manner, and to expand purchases when prices are low, which has played a threatening role in stabilizing pulp prices. Therefore, it is also the key one of the “three aspects†that affects pulp prices.
People think that the most important issue in China's pulp market may be the level of its pulp stocks. How much of China's recent increase in imports is actually consumed? How much inventory should be held at present? However, as in other aspects of the Chinese market, no one can really understand. According to the opinion of the journal, from the current situation, although it has been said some time ago that China’s pulp stocks are already inflated and bursting, it may be a mistake to say that their inventory actually increases. Its basis is: First, last year, China's domestic paper production capacity did not have an extraordinary large increase, it is difficult to explain why the volume of pulp imports will rise to the largest year in recent years. In fact, in 2001, only 150,000 tons of high-grade full-wood pulp paper production capacity was put into operation in China. In the first half of 2002, another 300,000 tons of high-grade paint all wood pulp paper was put into operation. This contrasts sharply with the changes in the production of 1.6 million tons of production capacity in the first half of 1999 and the corresponding import of wood pulp. 2. Papermaking companies with the largest amount of wood pulp, which are closely related to changes in the import volume of pulp, had a relatively low production run rate last year.
So why does China's stock of plasma do not inflate? The article believes that, first of all, in 2000, China's domestic stocks of pulp have a certain degree of decline, in order to raise the stock of pulp to the "normal" level, so the need to increase imports. Secondly, the price of pulp is very low. Unlike other parts of the world, China generally uses non-wood pulp as raw material in the production of printing and writing paper. This is because the production cost of wood pulp is relatively high. In 2001, the price of wood pulp continued to drop and fell to the bottom. The price of foliar pulp is less than US$350 per ton, and the price of bleached northern softwood pulp is less than US$400 per ton. However, in China, the cost of straw pulp rises due to the increase of wheat straw price, so many paper mills switch to wood pulp as feedstock. This may be one of the reasons that consumes more imported pulp. Finally, due to the low price of imported wood pulp, it has caused an impact on China's wood pulp production plants, which is not as good as buying pulp, thus increasing the import volume.
So, what is the outlook for China's pulp imports this year? The journal believes that its import level will be lower than in the second half of 2001, and the average level may be close to the first quarter of this year. Because the current pulp price is showing an upward trend, and China's current inventory is higher than normal, it is possible to rule out the possibility of a strong increase in pulp imports. As a result, the article argues that the rise of international pulp prices in the latter part of the year will no longer be dependent on China’s increase in imports as an important driving force. However, there will not be a large-scale decline in China's imported pulp, and therefore it will not pose a significant threat to pulp prices. The article believes that if the price of pulp does not surge unexpectedly this year, but only gradually increases in the later period and in 2003, China will not substantially reduce the volume of pulp imports, and the consumption of wood pulp in China will remain strong.
Viewpoint (Observation), a US-based RISI publication, recently reviewed the main factors affecting the pulp market. The article believes that there are three main factors affecting the price of pulp in the third quarter of this year: First, the pulp stocks of the five major pulp-producing countries in effect were announced on Tuesday, and in April, they were reduced by 188,000 tons from March. Still need to pay attention to the stock situation in the next few months; Second, the supply of the pulp market may be more in short supply than expected, while the reduction in supply will continue to reduce inventory; Third, another important reason for the crisis in pulp prices is The demand and trend of wood pulp in the Chinese market is a crucial part of evaluating the global pulp market outlook.
The demand for pulp in the Chinese market has been particularly strong in recent years. Last year bleached wood pulp imports amounted to 4.46 million tons. At the same time, China’s share of the global bleached wood pulp market has risen sharply. In the past four quarters, China’s share of wood pulp imports accounted for 12% of global wood pulp shipments, compared with 7% in 1999 and 2000, and only 4% in 1997.
Some people think that from the trend point of view, the recent sharp increase in China's imports of wood pulp does not seem to reverse. They believe that the increase in wood pulp imports reflects China's liberalization of demand for wood pulp, which is closely related to the overall growth of China's paper industry and changes in the production structure. It is well known that China's paper industry has recently invested heavily in the construction of large-scale new paper machines, which require the use of large amounts of wood pulp. In addition, when Chinese customers import wood pulp, they never ignore the key factor of price. They attach great importance to it, so the impact on pulp prices will be greater than the other two aspects mentioned above. China has always been able to reduce purchases when prices have risen in a timely manner, and to expand purchases when prices are low, which has played a threatening role in stabilizing pulp prices. Therefore, it is also the key one of the “three aspects†that affects pulp prices.
People think that the most important issue in China's pulp market may be the level of its pulp stocks. How much of China's recent increase in imports is actually consumed? How much inventory should be held at present? However, as in other aspects of the Chinese market, no one can really understand. According to the opinion of the journal, from the current situation, although it has been said some time ago that China’s pulp stocks are already inflated and bursting, it may be a mistake to say that their inventory actually increases. Its basis is: First, last year, China's domestic paper production capacity did not have an extraordinary large increase, it is difficult to explain why the volume of pulp imports will rise to the largest year in recent years. In fact, in 2001, only 150,000 tons of high-grade full-wood pulp paper production capacity was put into operation in China. In the first half of 2002, another 300,000 tons of high-grade paint all wood pulp paper was put into operation. This contrasts sharply with the changes in the production of 1.6 million tons of production capacity in the first half of 1999 and the corresponding import of wood pulp. 2. Papermaking companies with the largest amount of wood pulp, which are closely related to changes in the import volume of pulp, had a relatively low production run rate last year.
So why does China's stock of plasma do not inflate? The article believes that, first of all, in 2000, China's domestic stocks of pulp have a certain degree of decline, in order to raise the stock of pulp to the "normal" level, so the need to increase imports. Secondly, the price of pulp is very low. Unlike other parts of the world, China generally uses non-wood pulp as raw material in the production of printing and writing paper. This is because the production cost of wood pulp is relatively high. In 2001, the price of wood pulp continued to drop and fell to the bottom. The price of foliar pulp is less than US$350 per ton, and the price of bleached northern softwood pulp is less than US$400 per ton. However, in China, the cost of straw pulp rises due to the increase of wheat straw price, so many paper mills switch to wood pulp as feedstock. This may be one of the reasons that consumes more imported pulp. Finally, due to the low price of imported wood pulp, it has caused an impact on China's wood pulp production plants, which is not as good as buying pulp, thus increasing the import volume.
So, what is the outlook for China's pulp imports this year? The journal believes that its import level will be lower than in the second half of 2001, and the average level may be close to the first quarter of this year. Because the current pulp price is showing an upward trend, and China's current inventory is higher than normal, it is possible to rule out the possibility of a strong increase in pulp imports. As a result, the article argues that the rise of international pulp prices in the latter part of the year will no longer be dependent on China’s increase in imports as an important driving force. However, there will not be a large-scale decline in China's imported pulp, and therefore it will not pose a significant threat to pulp prices. The article believes that if the price of pulp does not surge unexpectedly this year, but only gradually increases in the later period and in 2003, China will not substantially reduce the volume of pulp imports, and the consumption of wood pulp in China will remain strong.
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