Recently, this reporter visited the China Machinery Industry Federation and the Economic and Operational Bureau of the State Economic and Trade Commission to understand the economic performance of the machinery industry in the first half of the year and related experts made predictions on the development trend throughout the year.
Analysis of economic operation in the first half of the year In the first half of this year, the production of machinery industry always maintained a rapid growth trend. Although the growth rate of statistical indicators such as industrial added value, product sales revenue, and profits all declined slightly month by month, the convergence of production and sales was normal. The industrial added value continued to increase, the economic efficiency of the enterprise improved, and the increase in profits was realized. Specifically embodied in the following aspects.
- Achieve a substantial increase in profits. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry realized a profit of 28.895 billion yuan, an increase of 48.2% year-on-year. What needs to be pointed out in particular is that in the 11 industries of the statistical machinery industry, all profits in the month of May have been realized, which has never been seen in recent years. From January to May, large and medium-sized enterprises realized a profit of 11.59 billion yuan, accounting for a relatively high proportion (55%), especially for the three major automobile groups, and achieved profits of up to 2.61 billion yuan.
- Production continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum, and accumulative order volume growth accelerated. From January to June, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 14.3% over the same period of last year, higher than the increase of national industrial added value by 3.3%, and was higher than the increase of the value added of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises by 5.1%. In terms of sub-sectors, there are construction machinery, automobiles, machine tools, etc. which are growing rapidly. Mainly due to the development of the western region, large-scale urban infrastructure projects, and the implementation of large-scale projects such as transportation and water conservancy, it provides a large market demand for production of mechanical products and consumer machinery products. For the first five months, smelting equipment increased by 57.79% year-on-year, oil drilling equipment increased by 53% year-on-year, high-precision machine tools and large-scale machine tools increased by 47% year-on-year, and mine excavators and high-voltage circuit breakers increased by 160% and 378% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase of cars was 17.1%.
- The growth rate of product sales slowed down, and the production and sales rate was basically stable. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry realized sales revenue of 696.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.34%, and the increase slowed down, but the production and sales rate increased month by month. For example, it was 92.62% in February and 96.54% in May. Large and medium-sized enterprises are still the dominant force in driving the development of the industry. The first five months of large and medium-sized enterprises achieved sales revenue of 55.6% of the entire industry, which is higher than that of the machinery industry.
-- Exports of electromechanical products grew faster than the overall level. In the first half of the year, the export of mechanical and electrical products was US$54.97 billion, an increase of 16.7%, which was much higher than the growth rate of China’s exports during the same period. However, the export growth of electromechanical products slowed down, and some of the products’ exports fell. For example, the number of cars and chassis exports fell by 35.3% in the first four months.
The relevant personages of the China National Machinery Industry Federation pointed out that in the first half of the year, the economic operation of the machinery industry has experienced the problem of unbalanced development among different industries, and it hopes to pay attention to it. In terms of sub-industries, the fastest increase in production in the first half of the year was for construction machinery, which reached 31.32%; for automobiles it reached 24.72%, mainly for cars, trucks, and passenger cars; and for the petrochemical general industry, it increased by 76%. Many companies have orders for the next two years. . The obvious increase in profits is that the machine tool industry has achieved profitability. The fastest growing sales revenues were heavy mining (29.34%), machine tools (26.83%), engineering (22.12%), and automobiles (21.4%). The main drivers of profitability in the industry were automobiles (11.96 billion yuan) and electricians (58.44 billion yuan). The production of agricultural machinery and food packaging machinery continued to decline.
The main problems in the first half of the year The relevant person from the Economic and Operational Bureau of the State Economic and Trade Commission pointed out that in the first half of this year, the machinery industry realized a substantial increase in production and sales, realizing a large increase in profits, a marked decline in financial expenses, a decrease in asset-liability ratio, and capital turnover. Accelerated, indicating that the overall operation of the machinery industry to a healthy development. However, due to the fact that accounts receivable, finished products and liabilities in the industry for the first five months totaled 8.45%, 7.29%, and 7.34% respectively over the same period of the previous year, it is bound to exert a certain degree of restraint on production and profit for the whole year. In addition, the loss of machinery industry enterprises in the first half of the year increased by 0.87 percentage points year on year, but also to cause great concern.
The relevant personages of the China National Machinery Industry Federation believe that from the January to June period of the mechanical industrial economic operation, there are still some difficulties and problems. The growth of the machinery industry was mainly driven by the country’s continued expansion of domestic demand and Other policies and measures. However, this situation is only recoverable. The machinery industry still has problems such as low technical level, repeated dispersion, unreasonable structure, and excessive corporate burden. Specific analysis mainly has the following problems. First, the growth of the machinery industry depends heavily on investment; second, the growth of the cost and expense of the machinery industry is faster than that of the sales revenue of the same period; and third, the proportion of the liquidity funds is large and circulation is poor. , The asset operating efficiency is low; Fourth, the mechanical industry output is not ideal; Fifth, the export growth rate fell sharply. In the first five months of this year, the increase in the export of machinery products was significantly lower than the level of 40.5% in the same period of last year.
Development trends in the second half of the year The relevant persons from the China Machinery Industry Federation and the Economic Operation Bureau of the State Economic and Trade Commission believe that in the second half of the year, the machinery industry will maintain a growth rate of 15%, and sales revenue will remain 16%. At a speed of ~18%, it is still possible to achieve the planned annual sales income of RMB 1.6 trillion and a profit of RMB 60 billion.
In the second half of the year, it is expected that the machine tool industry will have great progress in terms of both quality and quantity; the auto market will continue to be active and the market competition will become more fierce. The leading models that will drive market growth will remain mini vehicles and light vehicles; the second half of the instrumentation industry The slowdown in growth rate; demand for electrical equipment for power transmission and transformation equipment is good; construction machinery, petrochemical general machinery, and heavy mining machinery are expected to maintain high growth throughout the year; the situation in the agricultural machinery market in the second half of the year is still not optimistic. In view of the withdrawal of some agricultural products from protection price purchases, the income of farmers will be reduced. In some areas, the situation is severe, summer grain production is reduced, the purchasing power of farmers is weak, and the technical level of agricultural machinery products in China is relatively low. The difficulties faced by agricultural machinery enterprises are still very serious.
Analysis of economic operation in the first half of the year In the first half of this year, the production of machinery industry always maintained a rapid growth trend. Although the growth rate of statistical indicators such as industrial added value, product sales revenue, and profits all declined slightly month by month, the convergence of production and sales was normal. The industrial added value continued to increase, the economic efficiency of the enterprise improved, and the increase in profits was realized. Specifically embodied in the following aspects.
- Achieve a substantial increase in profits. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry realized a profit of 28.895 billion yuan, an increase of 48.2% year-on-year. What needs to be pointed out in particular is that in the 11 industries of the statistical machinery industry, all profits in the month of May have been realized, which has never been seen in recent years. From January to May, large and medium-sized enterprises realized a profit of 11.59 billion yuan, accounting for a relatively high proportion (55%), especially for the three major automobile groups, and achieved profits of up to 2.61 billion yuan.
- Production continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum, and accumulative order volume growth accelerated. From January to June, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 14.3% over the same period of last year, higher than the increase of national industrial added value by 3.3%, and was higher than the increase of the value added of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises by 5.1%. In terms of sub-sectors, there are construction machinery, automobiles, machine tools, etc. which are growing rapidly. Mainly due to the development of the western region, large-scale urban infrastructure projects, and the implementation of large-scale projects such as transportation and water conservancy, it provides a large market demand for production of mechanical products and consumer machinery products. For the first five months, smelting equipment increased by 57.79% year-on-year, oil drilling equipment increased by 53% year-on-year, high-precision machine tools and large-scale machine tools increased by 47% year-on-year, and mine excavators and high-voltage circuit breakers increased by 160% and 378% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase of cars was 17.1%.
- The growth rate of product sales slowed down, and the production and sales rate was basically stable. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry realized sales revenue of 696.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.34%, and the increase slowed down, but the production and sales rate increased month by month. For example, it was 92.62% in February and 96.54% in May. Large and medium-sized enterprises are still the dominant force in driving the development of the industry. The first five months of large and medium-sized enterprises achieved sales revenue of 55.6% of the entire industry, which is higher than that of the machinery industry.
-- Exports of electromechanical products grew faster than the overall level. In the first half of the year, the export of mechanical and electrical products was US$54.97 billion, an increase of 16.7%, which was much higher than the growth rate of China’s exports during the same period. However, the export growth of electromechanical products slowed down, and some of the products’ exports fell. For example, the number of cars and chassis exports fell by 35.3% in the first four months.
The relevant personages of the China National Machinery Industry Federation pointed out that in the first half of the year, the economic operation of the machinery industry has experienced the problem of unbalanced development among different industries, and it hopes to pay attention to it. In terms of sub-industries, the fastest increase in production in the first half of the year was for construction machinery, which reached 31.32%; for automobiles it reached 24.72%, mainly for cars, trucks, and passenger cars; and for the petrochemical general industry, it increased by 76%. Many companies have orders for the next two years. . The obvious increase in profits is that the machine tool industry has achieved profitability. The fastest growing sales revenues were heavy mining (29.34%), machine tools (26.83%), engineering (22.12%), and automobiles (21.4%). The main drivers of profitability in the industry were automobiles (11.96 billion yuan) and electricians (58.44 billion yuan). The production of agricultural machinery and food packaging machinery continued to decline.
The main problems in the first half of the year The relevant person from the Economic and Operational Bureau of the State Economic and Trade Commission pointed out that in the first half of this year, the machinery industry realized a substantial increase in production and sales, realizing a large increase in profits, a marked decline in financial expenses, a decrease in asset-liability ratio, and capital turnover. Accelerated, indicating that the overall operation of the machinery industry to a healthy development. However, due to the fact that accounts receivable, finished products and liabilities in the industry for the first five months totaled 8.45%, 7.29%, and 7.34% respectively over the same period of the previous year, it is bound to exert a certain degree of restraint on production and profit for the whole year. In addition, the loss of machinery industry enterprises in the first half of the year increased by 0.87 percentage points year on year, but also to cause great concern.
The relevant personages of the China National Machinery Industry Federation believe that from the January to June period of the mechanical industrial economic operation, there are still some difficulties and problems. The growth of the machinery industry was mainly driven by the country’s continued expansion of domestic demand and Other policies and measures. However, this situation is only recoverable. The machinery industry still has problems such as low technical level, repeated dispersion, unreasonable structure, and excessive corporate burden. Specific analysis mainly has the following problems. First, the growth of the machinery industry depends heavily on investment; second, the growth of the cost and expense of the machinery industry is faster than that of the sales revenue of the same period; and third, the proportion of the liquidity funds is large and circulation is poor. , The asset operating efficiency is low; Fourth, the mechanical industry output is not ideal; Fifth, the export growth rate fell sharply. In the first five months of this year, the increase in the export of machinery products was significantly lower than the level of 40.5% in the same period of last year.
Development trends in the second half of the year The relevant persons from the China Machinery Industry Federation and the Economic Operation Bureau of the State Economic and Trade Commission believe that in the second half of the year, the machinery industry will maintain a growth rate of 15%, and sales revenue will remain 16%. At a speed of ~18%, it is still possible to achieve the planned annual sales income of RMB 1.6 trillion and a profit of RMB 60 billion.
In the second half of the year, it is expected that the machine tool industry will have great progress in terms of both quality and quantity; the auto market will continue to be active and the market competition will become more fierce. The leading models that will drive market growth will remain mini vehicles and light vehicles; the second half of the instrumentation industry The slowdown in growth rate; demand for electrical equipment for power transmission and transformation equipment is good; construction machinery, petrochemical general machinery, and heavy mining machinery are expected to maintain high growth throughout the year; the situation in the agricultural machinery market in the second half of the year is still not optimistic. In view of the withdrawal of some agricultural products from protection price purchases, the income of farmers will be reduced. In some areas, the situation is severe, summer grain production is reduced, the purchasing power of farmers is weak, and the technical level of agricultural machinery products in China is relatively low. The difficulties faced by agricultural machinery enterprises are still very serious.
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